TranSystems
 

Forecasting

Forecasting international and domestic freight flows into and out of a specific region enables the creation of regional policy around developing infrastructure to support the industries moving these goods. The combination of international containerized import/export cargo data with domestic data allows an accurate view of cargo traffic, which affects infrastructure, land development, logistics service requirements and much more.

TranSystems creates freight forecasts for both international and domestic goods, taken out over a 5-, 10-, 20- or 30-year time horizon.  The forecast uses an “econometric” approach, taking into consideration not only historic time series trending but economic variables that are likely to affect growth of goods movement. Econometric modeling relates imports and exports of individual commodities (furniture, electronics, etc.) to independent economic variables such as real GDP, exchange rate, interest rates, industrial production, inventory-sales ratios, and household real estate net worth. This approach provides robust and defensible projections compared to alternate methodologies, such as trend analysis. Baseline forecasts are then tested through the application of sensitivity tests to determine impacts of changes in key assumptions – lower or higher economic growth, etc. Using our industry knowledge and expertise, along with our economic reasoning, we can create a more realistic view of what future commodity flows will look like.

Our experienced staff works on site selection projects with real estate developers, economic development groups in other parts of the country and private enterprises is used in determining the most suitable location for a warehouse/distribution center of a manufacturing/distribution company.  We analyze current practices; i.e. what value-added logistics services are currently being offered in the targeted industries, which logistics companies are offering these kinds of services and how the study region could benefit these industries by offering various types of services.  We also look at the anticipated trends these industries face in the changing logistics and supply chain environment, taking into account the different decision making factors within these various industries identified.

TranSystems serves a number of client types with cargo forecasting services, including port authorities, container leasing companies, rail equipment companies, economic development councils, real estate developers, metropolitan planning organizations, departments of Transportation and infrastructure investment companies.



 

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Resource Center

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